December 2006 - Posts

Judges Bury Market Pricing and Competitive Bulk Power Markets

A three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in a pair of December 19 opinions — PUD v. FERC and PUC v. FERC — effectively gutted FERC’s decade-old approach to fostering robust and liquid bulk power markets, which FERC has done by granting qualified sellers blanket authorizations to make wholesales at negotiated market- (rather than cost-) based prices. Annually, tens of thousands of wholesale power transactions occur in the US pursuant to this program, but will likely now stop in western states obligated to observe the Ninth Circuit's opinions and possibly elsewhere. Supreme Court review will inevitably be sought.

The two opinions decide companion appeals from FERC decisions in 2003 that rejected complaints by electric power buyers in California, Nevada and Washington seeking relief from contracts that they entered during the 2000-01 western energy crisis. The panel held that prices set in those bilateral transactions pursuant to FERC’s market-based program enjoyed no presumption of legality. Instead, payment of those prices should be refunded to the buyers to the extent the prices exceed a “zone of reasonableness” beginning on a refund-effective date soon after the buyers filed complaints with FERC. The panel remanded the cases back to FERC for a determination of whether and by how much prices exceeded that permissible zone.

According to the panel, FERC was wrong to accord the challenged bilateral contract prices Mobile Sierra protection — named after two Supreme Court decisions from 1956 — that immunizes a contract against unilateral change by either the buyer or seller unless the price is shown to be contrary to the general public interest. The prices and contracts at issue were entitled to no such protection, the panel ruled, because they were the product of FERC’s market-based pricing program — which another Ninth Circuit panel had found deficient in the 2004 opinion in Lockyer v. FERC. And even if that were not the case, the panel held that FERC misapplied Mobile Sierra. In a novel new interpretation of the 50-year old doctrine, the panel opined that Mobile Sierra is asymmetric in that it protects wholesale buyers from unilateral seller complaints that prices are excessively low, but does not equally protect wholesale sellers from unilateral buyer complaints that prices are excessively high. In other words, Mobile Sierra accommodates buyer’s remorse, but not seller’s.

It is in the panel’s expansion of the earlier Lockyer decision that the market-pricing program is dealt what will surely be a fatal blow unless the decisions are overturned. For over a decade, FERC has authorized market-based rate schedules under the Federal Power Act allowing certain electric wholesalers to charge market-determined prices. Eligibility turned on the seller demonstrating in advance that it lacked or had mitigated market power — the ability to set prices for an appreciable period of time — in power supply, power transmission and the inputs to power supply, such as fuel supply or delivery. Once granted market pricing authority, a seller reports any change affecting its lack of market power, files quarterly reports on its market-based sales for the preceding quarter, and triennially demonstrates anew that it continues to lack market power. The Lockyer panel held that a market-based seller who aggregates sales information in its quarterly report is in violation of its market-based rate schedule, loses the protection of the filed rate doctrine for those sales and can be made to refund — even retroactively — its revenues on those sales.

The PUD/PUC panel relied on and expanded Lockyer to erode further the price certainty of market-based sales and make new and ineluctably fatal demands of FERC’s market-based pricing program. Specifically, the panel held that power wholesales pursuant to that program enjoy no Mobile Sierra price certainty following a unilateral challenge unless the contract is presented in advance to FERC and FERC has “an opportunity for [(1)] initial review of whether [the] rate is just and reasonable,” (2) determining “whether the original negotiations occurred in a functional marketplace," and (3) “timely reconsideration of [the seller’s] market-based [pricing] authorization if market conditions change.”

From the outset of its market-pricing program, the purpose of determining the lack of market power and monitoring changes in market power going forward was and is to facilitate the tens of thousands of market-based wholesales that now occur each year in the US without requiring advance regulatory analysis and approval of specific prices and contract formation. If advance regulatory approval is to be required in order to achieve price certainty, then no purpose is served by the market power determination and monitoring. The entire exercise becomes a nullity. And, in its stead, the new panel-prescribed process becomes unworkable since the FERC does not now have ― nor ever will have ― the resources to determine individually and in advance whether the prices in tens of thousands of market-based wholesales are within a zone of reasonableness and were arrived at pursuant to negotiations in a functional marketplace. Notwithstanding disclaimers to the contrary, the panel, if not reversed, has killed market pricing and competitive wholesale power markets.

FERC To Take Closer Look at ISO-NE's Proposed 2007 Budget

The cost of running regional transmission organizations continues to be a point of contention.  FERC has agreed with New England officials representing Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine and New Hampshire that part of ISO-New England's proposed budget for 2007 deserves more scrutiny, and has established a paper hearing to evaluate the proposal. 

In October, the ISO-NE submitted tariff sheets for recovery of an expected $114.9 million revenue requirement for 2007.  For the third year in a row, challenges were levied against ISO-NE's proposed budget.  The New England officials asked FERC to hold a trial-type evidentiary hearing to determine whether the costs that ISO-NE plans to pass through to customers, were just and reasonable.  In arguing that ISO-NE failed to support its  budget, the regional officials pointed to FERC's statement last year in its Final Rule on Accounting and Financial Reporting for Public Utilities and RTOs  that the changes in financial reporting implemented by that rule should improve cost recovery practices by providing greater detail concerning RTO costs.  In particular, the officials challenged  ISO-NE's proposed senior staff incentive payments, depreciation and amortization expenses, non-project capital expenses, consultant and other professional service fee costs, and costs related to projected staffing increases.

The only issue set for hearing is ISO-NE's proposed depreciation and amortization expenses.  In particular, FERC ― like the New England officials ― questioned whether the "relatively short average service lives and zero net salvage values used by ISO-NE may result in excessive amounts of depreciation and amortization" for the coming year.  FERC found all of the other complaints to be unfounded or not properly at issue.

Other recent challenges to ISO-NE budgets have not succeeded.  Last year, FERC rejected challenges to rate recovery of certain lobbying costs, and in 2005 FERC justified the increase in ISO-NE's administrative costs based on additional duties taken on by the RTO.  As seen again here, FERC's concern for accurate RTO budgeting does not necessarily translate into reduced rates for RTO services.

posted Friday, December 22, 2006 2:05 PM by Gunnar Birgisson

Texas Coop Plans New DC Tie Between ERCOT and SPP

Brazos Electric Cooperative (Brazos) applied to FERC in October and again in November for the interconnection of a new 70-mile, 345 kV transmission line that would connect generation in Oklahoma with load in Texas.  The proposed line would be built in conjunction with Brazos's plans to construct a new 750 MW coal-fired generating unit near the Western Farmers Electric Cooperative's (WFEC) existing Hugo generating facility in Hugo, Oklahoma.  Brazos, an electric coop located in 68 counties across north Texas, and WFEC, which has service areas throughout Oklahoma, will jointly own the new Hugo unit.  In order for Brazos to bring this power from Hugo to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Brazos is planning to build the new DC intertie between ERCOT and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which will have an approximate capacity of 375 MW.  Accordingly, Brazos has asked FERC to order TXU Electric Delivery (TXU) to allow it to interconnect with TXU's system at the Valley South substation in north Texas.  Brazos also asked FERC to require TXU and CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric to offer transmission service for power flows over the new line into or out of ERCOT.  Brazos has asked FERC to issue a decision on its application by January 31, 2007.

The proposed DC intertie would be the third such interconnection between ERCOT and SPP.  In its application, Brazos took pains to emphasize that its proposed interconnection would maintain the fiction that ERCOT is outside of the interstate grid and not subject to most forms of FERC regulation.  To that end, Brazos specified that the intertie and the generating unit's switching station would be engineered such that the generating facility could generate only into either ERCOT or SPP, but not both at once.

posted Tuesday, December 19, 2006 1:12 PM by Tracy Davis

CAISO Considers Delaying MRTU Again

California ISO president and CEO Yakout Mansour indicated this past Tuesday that the CAISO would likely delay further the implementation of its new Market Redesign and Technology Upgrade (MRTU) tariff until January 31, 2008.  Mansour attributed the need for further delay to the large number of changes FERC ordered the CAISO to make in FERC's September 21 order conditionally approving the tariff, including FERC's requirement that the CAISO certify 60 days before implementation that the MRTU software works as promised.  During FERC proceedings on MRTU, numerous market participants and stakeholders expressed doubts that the CAISO would meet its November 2007 start date, even though it has been four years since the CAISO initially proposed to redesign its market in 2002 on the heels the western energy crisis.  The CAISO Board will convene December 19 to decide on a "firm" implementation date.
posted Friday, December 15, 2006 11:31 AM by Tracy Davis

Regional Operators Enjoy Flexibility in Selecting Cost Allocation Methodology

Disputes in the Midwest over allocating transmission costs date back to at least the mid 1980s, when competing interests fought over AEP's transmission equalization agreements and the transmission costs associated with the Rockport plant.  Recently FERC resolved for now another of those disputes, by accepting Midwest ISO's proposed allocation of the costs of new transmission infrastructure. 

Midwest ISO proposed to allocate the cost of: (1) lower voltage lines subregionally to all transmission customers in the designated pricing zones affected by the transmission project, and (2)  Extra High Voltage (EHV) ― 345 kV up to 765 kV ― 80% subregionally (like lower voltage facilities) and 20% systemwide on a load-ratio share basis (i.e., a postage-stamp basis).  FERC accepted this allocation on the ground that the EHV lines are the superhighways of the Midwest transmission grid. 

Midwest ISO is the third RTO for which FERC has engaged transmission cost allocation issues.  The others are New England and Southwest Power Pool.  FERC accepted a different approach for each.  Given that FERC has been flexible in allowing different approaches, future RTOs will be free to seek their own solutions to these often divisive issues. 

FERC also accepted Midwest ISO’s proposal for generation interconnection cost allocation, which makes generators responsible for 50% of the transmission upgrade costs if the generation output is committed to network customers or designated as a network resource.  Otherwise, the generator is responsible for 100% of the costs of transmission upgrades required for interconnection.  While FERC rejected arguments that this approach would “chill” generation investment, FERC still directed Midwest ISO to file, within 12 months, an informational report on its experience under this cost recovery methodology.  More to come on this front, as the issue is reopened with more data next year. 

posted Friday, December 15, 2006 9:32 AM by Tracy Davis

ERCOT Report Lays Groundwork for Transmission to Support Wind Development

Texas moved closer to developing the additional transmission needed to deliver wind power to loads when the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a report identifying geographic areas that the Public Utility Commission (PUCT) could designate as competitive renewable energy zones (CREZ) under Texas law.  After the CREZ are established, the law then requires construction of the necessary transmission facilities between the CREZ and urban areas.   

Texas currently has more installed wind generation, 2508 MW, than any other state, and this number is expected to rise to approximately 4850 MW by the end of 2007.  However, as in many other parts of the country, the areas where wind power has the greatest potential are far from energy-thirsty population centers.  Texas legislation enacted in 2005 is intended to facilitate the development of needed transmission infrastructure to support future wind power development.  To that end, ERCOT’s analysis concludes that most wind farms would likely be located in the Gulf Coast region, the Panhandle, central-western Texas (along the Abilene-Odessa corridor), and in the McCamey region in west Texas.  Each area has different strengths and weaknesses regarding expected production and transmission costs, capacity characteristics, and daily and seasonable variability of winds.  The report states that several new high-voltage 345-kV transmission lines and associated grid upgrades would be needed to support expected wind farm development.

The PUCT is expected to make CREZ determinations in early 2007.  Any designations will be based on a wide range of factors, including costs of transmission construction and ancillary services, wind energy strength and benefits, and the financial support for proposed projects.

posted Tuesday, December 12, 2006 6:32 PM by Gunnar Birgisson

FERC Conditionally Approves PJM RTEP Process Modifications

Despite concerns about the paucity of detail in PJM's modified Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP), FERC has conditionally approved it effective retroactively to September 9 of this year. 

PJM filed the plan in early September, asking FERC to approve a new forward-looking planning process that is driven by economics as well as reliability considerations.  Several interests protested that the plan lacked adequate detail.  For example, it did not disclose when a proposed market solution to congestion could displace a project already incorporated into the RTEP.  Nor did it reveal how PJM proposed to measure market efficiency.  

While acknowledging that the RTEP revisions need fleshing out, FERC enumerated benefits offered by the new process that were absent under PJM's previous approach.  The benefits include its forward-looking planning and "more expansive view" of the planning process.  In particular, the revised RTEP process allows PJM to consider both market-based and rate-based solutions with equal weight when addressing congestion.  It also requires PJM to consider future market conditions when making such decisions.   

FERC directed PJM to clarify various ambiguities in its proposal.  How, for instance, did  PJM propose to evaluate long-term price forecasts and the efficacy of proposals to decongest the grid?  FERC declined to demand that PJM establish a deadline beyond which market solutions can no longer bump projects from the RTEP, and FERC agreed that PJM may continue to allocate the costs of economic upgrades to those who specifically benefit from the upgrades.   

FERC staff will convene a technical conference in the near future to examine the possibility of using demand-response/conservation resources as alternatives or complements to transmission expansion projects and how providers of demand response should be compensated.

posted Friday, December 08, 2006 9:55 AM by Andrea Kells

California Energy Commission Notes Slow Progress by Utilities on State Renewable Standards

Despite all the legislative efforts to beef up California's renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in recent months, the California Energy Commission (CEC) recently disclosed that the state's investor-owned utilities (IOU) are making little progress toward meeting the state's requirements that 20% of power supply must come from renewable energy sources by 2010.  In an draft update to its Integrated Energy Policy Report, released November 17, the CEC concluded that at the current pace, the state will fail to meet the 2010 goal, unless the IOUs take action now. 

According to the CEC, the primary and most obvious reason for the slow pace thus far has been a lack of construction of new transmission capable of  linking green resources with load ― an obstacle reported in other states as well.  In September, the California IOUs indicated to California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that they may fail to meet the RPS goals because of the state's limited transmission facilities.  The CEC report also notes that the California IOUs' renewable efforts have been hampered by green projects that have been abandoned or otherwise never began operations.  For example, according to the CEC's report, while the IOUs have signed contracts since the initial passage of the RPS in 2002 for as much as 4,095 MW of renewable capacity, only 242 MW of that capacity are on-line today.  Other obstacles cited by the CEC include:  the complexity of the CPUC's RPS program for IOUs; financing uncertainty; and slow progress in repowering aging wind facilities.

The CEC report also made recommendations to get the IOUs back on track, such as suggesting that the CPUC clarify its IOU RPS program, enforce RPS non-compliance penalties, expedite its review of already proposed renewable projects by Southern California Edison (SCE) and San Diego Gas & Electric, and work with the California ISO to compel SCE to meet the 2010 schedule for its Tehachapi renewable project.  The CEC also recommended that IOUs be required to procure 3% above what the RPS requires in order to compensate for potential contract failure.  The CEC has scheduled a workshop to be held December 7 to receive input on the draft report.

posted Thursday, December 07, 2006 2:17 PM by Tracy Davis

After Rate Freeze, Delaware Considers Giant Step Backward to Re-regulate Power

In the latest display of  handwringing after the expiration of long-term retail rate freezes, Delaware has indicated it may re-regulate its electricity markets.  These are more than idle thoughts by the state's government, as a General Assembly resolution requires the state to hire a consultant to study and report on the potential effects of re-regulation of the electric industry.

The interest in re-regulation is based on steep rate hikes for residential and industrial customers in 2006.  These increases, however, follow seven years during which prices were frozen at a reduced level initially prescribed in Delaware's restructuring legislation and then extended in connection with the state's approval of the merger between the parent companies of PEPCO and  Delmarva Power & Light.  This extended rate freeze thus insulated retail customers in Delaware from wholesale price changes. 

The consultant selected by Delaware is to analyze efforts in other states to re-regulate their electric power sectors, and discuss the potential benefits and disadvantages of re-regulation, including the economic costs to the state and the electric power industry as well as the effect on attaining environmental standards.  Responses to the state's request for proposals are due by December 19, 2006, and a contract will be awarded by January 15. 2007.

Considering the controversy surrounding the expiration of rate freezes in Maryland, and the role retail rate freezes had in the California energy crisis, the lesson for state regulators may be to avoid such artificial means of controlling power prices, as they too often simply postpone and distort price signals that should inform investments in generation, transmission, pollution control and other public goods. 

posted Monday, December 04, 2006 12:15 PM by Gunnar Birgisson